Harry César Kayembe Ntumba¹, Doudou Batumbo¹, Jean-Marie Kayembe Ntumba², Julien Ntaongo¹, Lucien Bisimwa¹, Tonton Paul Vita¹, and Didier Bompangue Nkoko¹,³,⁴
¹Training and Research Unit on Ecology and Control of Infectious Diseases, Department of Microbiology and Medical Biology, University of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
²Department of Internal Medicine, University of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
³Chrono-Environnement Laboratory, CNRS, UMR 6249, Bourgogne Franche-Comté University, France
?Ministry of Health, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Corresponding Author:
Harry César Kayembe Ntumba, Unité de Recherche et de Formation en Ecologie et Contrôle des Maladies Infectieuses, Centre de Recherche et d’Etudes sur les Maladies Emergentes et Ré émergentes,Service de Microbiologie, Département de Biologie Médicale, Faculté de Médecine, Université de Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, B.P: 834, Kinshasa XI, Tel: (+243) 81-674-32-42; Email: dr15harrykayembe@gmail.com
Keywords: Spread; Cholera Epidemic; Driving Factors; El Niño; Armed Conflicts; IDPs
Abstract
The El Niño’s impact on the incidence and endemicity of cholera is highlighted in coastal regions of SouthEastern Asia and inland regions of sub-Saharan Africa, namely in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. This region is also a site of recurrent armed conflicts with subsequent internally displaced persons. However, the western DRC is sporadically affected consecutively to cholera spreading from the eastern endemic foci. We hypothesized that El Niño and both eastern armed conflicts and IDPs may play a central role in the spread of cholera epidemics in the DRC. Using Binomial Regression Models, our study showed that El Niño events were the main predictors of cholera epidemics spreading out of eastern endemic provinces. It implies that we may be able to provide an epidemiological tool to forecast the risk of cholera in the DRC.
Citation
Kayembe Ntumba HC, Batumbo D, Kayembe Ntumba JM, Ntaongo J, Bisimwa L, Vita TP, et al. East-Western Dynamic and Driving Factors of Cholera Epidemics in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. SM Journal of Infect Dis. 2018; 3(1): 1007.
