Keywords
SIR; Avian Influenza; Epidemiology; Metapopulation; Vaccination; Basic Reproductive Number; Simulations Spread of Diseases
Abstract
Our research focused on Avian Influenza Type A-H5N1, specifically on an epidemiological model centered in Puerto Rico. Our main goal is to address the following: first, to determine the potential outbreaks of this disease in Puerto Rico using as a base the location of the poultry industry as a hub, we are interested in the repercussions of the infection among the human-to-human potential interaction. The second goal centers on the possibility of vaccination to mitigate an epidemic among humans. In order to address these goals and future ones, we will construct a mathematical model and use parameters according to two cases; the first is a single population model and the second one is a metapopulation model involving 5 cities in Puerto Rico. Our research will specifically target the spread of this particular disease, to investigate possible alternatives to mitigate the spread using measures of immunization. Our results show that a 30% vaccination regime will eradicate the disease in cities that are immunized.
Citation
Collazo-Rivera M and Cruz-Aponte M. Avian Influenza Type A-H5N1 Epidemiological Model: Puerto Rico as a Case Study. SM Vaccine Vaccin. 2015;1(1):1005.